Mesa, Arizona Frost Dates, Growing Season & Hardiness Zone
Frost odds and planting zone for Mesa for the 2027 season, based on 1991–2020 normals.
Last frost date
Feb 1
typical (50% chance of a later 32°F night), in years with a freeze
Safer date: Feb 28 (10% risk)
earlyFeb 1
typicalFeb 28
safer
First fall frost
Dec 10
typical (50% chance it has happened by then)
Early-risk date: Nov 22 (10%)
Growing season
312 days
typical frost-free (32°F) season
Short year: 280 days (1 year in 10 is shorter)
USDA hardiness zone
9b–10a
2023 map: 25 to 35°F average coldest night
2012 map: 9b (most of the city)
Stations around the metro don't all agree. The typical last frost is as early as Jan 5 at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport and as late as Feb 13 at Tempe ASU.
In years with a freeze, half have their last 32°F night by Feb 1, and 1 in 10 of those years still has one after Feb 28.
Based on NOAA station E Mesa (USC00022782), 4.3 mi ENE, elevation 1,518 ft (+188 ft vs. city center). Confidence: Medium.
When is the last frost in Mesa?
A freeze isn't guaranteed every year. At E Mesa, NOAA puts the yearly chance of a 32°F night at 98.2%. Every date on this page is conditional: it describes only the years that reach 32°F.
When a freeze does come, the last 32°F night is typically by Feb 1, and 1 in 10 of those years has one after Feb 28. 36°F nights (frost possible on plants) happen in 100% of years and typically end around Feb 27. 28°F hard freezes happen in 70.1% of years.
Mesa has a long late-frost tail: 27 days separate the typical date (Feb 1) from the safer 1-in-10 date (Feb 28). If tender plants go out early, be ready to protect them on cold nights.
Cold nights don't end with the last freeze. In years with a freeze, the typical last 32°F night is Feb 1; the typical last 36°F night (frost possible on plants in low spots) comes around Feb 27, 26 days later. Frost can form on leaves on clear, calm nights even with the thermometer above freezing.
| Threshold | 10% (safer) | 30% | 50% (typical) | 90% (early) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F (frost possible on plants) | Mar 15 | Mar 5 | Feb 27 | Jan 31 |
| 32°F freeze | Feb 28 | Feb 12 | Feb 1 | Jan 1 |
| 28°F hard freeze | Feb 11 | Jan 26 | Jan 11 | Dec 13 |
All probabilities (10–90%)
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F (frost possible on plants) | Mar 15 | Mar 10 | Mar 5 | Mar 1 | Feb 27 | Feb 20 | Feb 15 | Feb 8 | Jan 31 |
| 32°F freeze | Feb 28 | Feb 19 | Feb 12 | Feb 6 | Feb 1 | Jan 26 | Jan 18 | Jan 10 | Jan 1 |
| 28°F hard freeze | Feb 11 | Feb 2 | Jan 26 | Jan 17 | Jan 11 | Jan 4 | Dec 31 | Dec 23 | Dec 13 |
Is it too early to plant in Mesa?
Before Feb 1 the odds of another 32°F night are better than even; after Feb 28 they are about 1 in 10 or less.
Today's risk is computed in your browser from the same NOAA probability table, shown as the range between the two nearest NOAA probability levels.
When is the first frost in Mesa?
When a freeze does come, the first 32°F night is typically by Dec 10; in 1 in 10 of those years it comes as early as Nov 22. Look for the first 36°F night (frost possible on plants) around Nov 30. 28°F hard freezes happen in 70.1% of years.
Fall plantings are timed backward from first frost: Dec 10 typically, or Nov 22 if you want a cushion. See the planting calendar for each crop's date.
| Threshold | 10% (early) | 30% | 50% (typical) | 90% (late) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F (frost possible on plants) | Nov 13 | Nov 22 | Nov 30 | Dec 15 |
| 32°F freeze | Nov 22 | Dec 2 | Dec 10 | Jan 1 |
| 28°F hard freeze | Dec 1 | Dec 13 | Dec 26 | Jan 28 |
All probabilities (10–90%)
| Threshold | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F (frost possible on plants) | Nov 13 | Nov 18 | Nov 22 | Nov 26 | Nov 30 | Dec 2 | Dec 6 | Dec 10 | Dec 15 |
| 32°F freeze | Nov 22 | Nov 28 | Dec 2 | Dec 6 | Dec 10 | Dec 14 | Dec 19 | Dec 24 | Jan 1 |
| 28°F hard freeze | Dec 1 | Dec 9 | Dec 13 | Dec 19 | Dec 26 | Jan 1 | Jan 5 | Jan 14 | Jan 28 |
How long is Mesa's growing season?
In a typical year, Mesa gets 312 days between the last and first 32°F nights. About 1 year in 10, the season is shorter than 280 days.
With a season this long, you can grow many crops twice: once in spring and again for fall.
The station averages 8,239 growing degree days (base 50°F) a year. That number measures how much heat crops have to grow on.
| Threshold | 10% (long year) | 50% (typical) | 90% (short year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36°F (frost possible on plants) | 304 days | 276 days | 247 days |
| 32°F freeze | 348 days | 312 days | 280 days |
| 28°F hard freeze | 365 days | 352 days | 317 days |
How does Mesa's season compare?
Among the 3 Arizona cities with frost dates on this site, the typical frost-free season in Mesa (312 days) is the 2nd longest.
Nationwide, across the 56 cities with frost dates on this site, the typical frost-free season here outlasts the one in 48 of them and falls short of the one in 7.
Growing degree days (base 50°F)
Annual normal: 8,239 GDD (NOAA flag R, 14 years). Running total by the end of each month (sum of NOAA daily GDD normals, so the year-end total can differ slightly from the annual normal):
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 161 | 356 | 742 | 1,320 | 2,188 | 3,309 | 4,624 | 5,910 | 6,984 | 7,737 | 8,107 | 8,240 |
What growing zone is Mesa? (USDA 2023)
On the 2023 USDA map, Mesa is zone 9b–10a (25 to 35°F average coldest winter night). On the 2012 map, most of the city was 9b. Of the 18 city ZIPs listed in both tables, 3 moved up half a zone.
| ZIP | 2023 | 2012 | Change | Share of ZIP in Mesa |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85201 mostly in city | 9b | 9b | unchanged | 92% |
| 85202 mostly in city | 10a | 9b | +1 half zone (warmer) | 99% |
| 85203 mostly in city | 9b | 9b | unchanged | 78% |
| 85204 mostly in city | 9b | 9b | unchanged | 100% |
| 85205 mostly in city | 9b | 9b | unchanged | 83% |
| 85206 mostly in city | 9b | 9b | unchanged | 84% |
| 85207 mostly in city | 9b | 9b | unchanged | 51% |
| 85208 mostly in city | 9b | 9b | unchanged | 61% |
| 85209 mostly in city | 9b | 9b | unchanged | 95% |
| 85210 mostly in city | 10a | 9b | +1 half zone (warmer) | 100% |
| 85212 mostly in city | 9b | 9b | unchanged | 79% |
| 85213 mostly in city | 9b | 9b | unchanged | 96% |
| 85215 | 9b | 9b | unchanged | 16% |
| 85234 | 9b | 9b | unchanged | 0% |
| 85256 | 9b | 9b | unchanged | 0% |
| 85257 | 9b | 9b | unchanged | 0% |
| 85281 | 9b | 9b | unchanged | 0% |
| 85282 | 10a | 9b | +1 half zone (warmer) | 0% |
Other ZIPs touching Mesa
ZIPs outside the 852 prefix that overlap the city boundary:
- 85120: 2023 9b, 2012 9b (0.1% of the ZIP is in Mesa)
Zones: PRISM Group, Oregon State University, https://prism.oregonstate.edu, accessed 2026-10-08. Shown as published in the ZIP tables; this page does not show a zone map. Not the official USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map (official map: planthardiness.ars.usda.gov).
Does the new zone change Mesa's frost dates?
No. Hardiness zones are based only on the average coldest winter temperature. They say nothing about when spring and fall frosts happen. Mesa's frost dates come from NOAA's 1991–2020 frost probabilities, which did not change with the 2023 zone map. Use your zone to pick perennials that will survive winter, and your frost dates to time planting.
Why do Mesa frost dates differ between websites?
Some sources list Feb 12 for Mesa. That's the 30%-risk date: about 3 in 10 years with a freeze still have a 32°F night after it. Our headline date is Feb 1, the 50% (median) date.
We call Feb 28 the 'safer' date. It's the 10%-risk date: in about 1 in 10 years with a freeze, a 32°F night still comes after it.
Feb 27 is the typical (50%) date for a 36°F night (frost possible on plants), not a 32°F freeze. Any site that draws the line at 36°F will show later dates.
The choice of weather station matters too. The 8 stations within 25 miles of the city center that pass our quality rules give typical (50%) last 32°F frost dates from Jan 5 to Feb 13; see the table below.
| Date | What it is (NOAA 1991–2020) |
|---|---|
| Feb 12 | 32°F last frost, 30% risk (a 'balanced' date) |
| Feb 27 | 36°F last cold night, 50% (frost possible on plants) |
| Feb 28 | 32°F last frost, 10% risk (the 'safer' date) |
| Jan 11 | 28°F last hard freeze, 50% |
| Jan 5 | 32°F last frost, 50%, at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (nearest station with NOAA flag S) |
| Station | Distance | Elevation | Typical last frost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport | 16.7 mi W | 1,107 ft | Jan 5 |
| Fountain Hills | 14.1 mi N | 1,580 ft | Jan 6 |
| Scottsdale Municipal Airport | 19.1 mi NW | 1,473 ft | Jan 6 |
| South Phoenix | 20.5 mi W | 1,155 ft | Jan 21 |
| E Mesa used here | 4.3 mi ENE | 1,518 ft | Feb 1 |
| Chandler Heights | 13.5 mi S | 1,425 ft | Feb 1 |
| Tempe ASU | 12.0 mi W | 1,167 ft | Feb 13 |
| Stewart Mountain Dam | 15.1 mi NE | 1,422 ft | Feb 13 |
Which weather station is this based on?
- Station
- E Mesa (NOAA USC00022782, COOP)
- Distance
- 4.3 mi ENE of the city center
- Elevation
- 1,518 ft; city center 1,330 ft (USGS), difference +188 ft
- Record
- NOAA completeness flag R, 15 of 30 years (1991–2020)
- Confidence
- Medium (rule)
Confidence: Medium. The station meets our quality rules, but its distance (4.3 mi) or elevation difference (+188 ft) is larger than ideal. Its frost statistics: NOAA flag R, 15 of 30 years.
Caveat: these frost statistics carry NOAA's 'R' (representative) flag. They're based on 15 of the 30 years in 1991–2020, with missing months filled in from surrounding stations. The nearest station with a full 'S' (standard) record is Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, 16.7 mi away, with a typical last frost of Jan 5.
| Station | ID | Distance | Elev. (Δ) | Last frost 50% | First frost 50% | Season 50% | NOAA flag / years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E Mesa | USC00022782 | 4.3 mi ENE | 1,518 ft (+188) | Feb 1 | Dec 10 | 312 d | R / 15 |
| Tempe ASU | USC00028499 | 12.0 mi W | 1,167 ft (-163) | Feb 13 | Dec 5 | 298 d | R / 24 |
| Chandler Heights | USC00021514 | 13.5 mi S | 1,425 ft (+95) | Feb 1 | Dec 11 | 315 d | R / 14 |
| Fountain Hills | USC00023190 | 14.1 mi N | 1,580 ft (+250) | Jan 6 | Dec 28 | 356 d | R / 21 |
| Stewart Mountain Dam | USC00028214 | 15.1 mi NE | 1,422 ft (+92) | Feb 13 | Dec 5 | 295 d | R / 14 |
| Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport | USW00023183 | 16.7 mi W | 1,107 ft (-223) | Jan 5 | Jan 3 | 365 d | S / 29 |
| Scottsdale Municipal Airport | USW00003192 | 19.1 mi NW | 1,473 ft (+143) | Jan 6 | Dec 26 | 353 d | R / 18 |
| South Phoenix | USC00028112 | 20.5 mi W | 1,155 ft (-175) | Jan 21 | Dec 16 | 331 d | R / 17 |
Other stations within 25 mi (not used)
- Apache Junction 5 NE (USC00020288), 14.2 mi ENE, 2,070 ft: typical last frost Feb 11. Not used: |elev diff| 740 ft > 500 ft.
- Mormon Flat (USC00025700), 19.1 mi NE, 1,705 ft: typical last frost Jan 29. Not used: frost normals incomplete or flagged (needs all 81 values with S/R flags, or values missing only because NOAA's probability of occurrence is below 10%).
- Pinnacle Peak (USC00026603), 24.1 mi NNW, 2,565 ft: typical last frost Jan 27. Not used: |elev diff| 1235 ft > 500 ft.
47 other NOAA normals stations within 40 km (mostly rain gauges) have no frost statistics.
Mesa planting dates at a glance
Balanced dates use the 30%-risk last-frost date as the anchor. The Mesa planting calendar has typical and safe dates, fall planting and a month-by-month list for 26 vegetables.
| Crop | Start indoors | Plant outdoors (balanced) | Fall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tomatoes | Feb 22 – Mar 8 | Apr 12 | – |
| Peppers | Jan 1–15 | Feb 26 | – |
| Potatoes | – | Jan 29 – Feb 12 | – |
| Onions (dry, from sets) | – | Jan 15–29 | – |
| Peas | – | Jan 15–29 | sow by Sep 22 |
| Lettuce (leaf) | – | Jan 15–29 | sow by Sep 27 |
| Carrots | – | Jan 29 – Feb 12 | sow by Sep 17 |
| Beans (snap) | – | Feb 12 | sow by Sep 13 |
| Summer squash | – | Feb 12 | sow by Sep 23 |
| Broccoli | Nov 27 – Dec 11 | Jan 15–29 | transplant by Sep 22 |
| Cabbage | Nov 27 – Dec 11 | Jan 15–29 | transplant by Sep 2 |
| Cauliflower | Dec 11–25 | Jan 29 – Feb 12 | – |
| Kohlrabi | – | Jan 15–29 | sow by Oct 7 |
| Green onions | – | Jan 15–29 | sow by Sep 27 |
| Radishes | – | Jan 15–29 | sow by Oct 27 |
| Spinach | – | Jan 15–29 | sow by Oct 17 |
| Turnips | – | Jan 15–29 | sow by Oct 7 |
| Beets | – | Jan 29 – Feb 12 | sow by Sep 27 |
| Swiss chard | – | Jan 29 – Feb 12 | sow by Sep 27 |
| Parsnips | – | Jan 29 – Feb 12 | – |
| Sweet corn | – | Feb 12 | – |
| Cucumbers | – | Feb 12 | sow by Sep 18 |
| Eggplant | Dec 25 – Jan 15 | Feb 26 | – |
| Cantaloupe | – | Feb 26 | – |
| Watermelon | – | Feb 26 | – |
| Winter squash | – | Feb 26 | – |
When to plant tomatoes in Mesa · Fall planting dates for Mesa
Frost dates near Mesa
| City | Distance | Last frost | First frost | Season | Zone 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix frost dates | 25 mi | Jan 8 | Dec 25 | 354 days | 9b–10a |
| Tucson frost dates | 99 mi | Feb 5 | Dec 9 | 307 days | 9a–9b |
| Las Vegas, NV frost dates | 281 mi | Jan 24 | Dec 10 | 323 days | 8b–9b |
Frequently asked questions
What is the average last frost date in Mesa?
Not every winter in Mesa freezes: NOAA puts the yearly chance of a 32°F night at E Mesa at 98.2%. In the years that do freeze, the typical (50%) last one is Feb 1, and only about 1 in 10 of those years has one after Feb 28.
When is the first frost in Mesa?
In years with a freeze, the first 32°F night typically arrives by Dec 10, and in about 1 in 10 of those years it comes as early as Nov 22. NOAA puts the yearly chance of a 32°F night at E Mesa at 98.2%.
What growing zone is Mesa, Arizona?
Zone 9b–10a. Most of Mesa was 9b on the 2012 map too, but 3 of 18 city ZIPs changed zone.
Is it too early to plant in Mesa?
If you plant frost-tender crops before Feb 1, a 32°F night after planting is more likely than not in years with a freeze. For planting days from Feb 1 to Feb 28, that risk falls from 50% to 10% of those years. In any given year, NOAA puts the chance of a 32°F night at E Mesa at 98.2%. Peas, lettuce and other cool-season crops can go in weeks earlier (see the planting calendar).
What temperature is a killing frost?
It depends on the crop. Tender plants such as tomatoes are killed by a light frost, which CSU Extension describes as 28–32°F; below 28°F is a heavy frost. We show NOAA odds for 36°F (frost possible on plants), 32°F (freeze, our headline) and 28°F (hard freeze).
Is first frost the same as first freeze?
Not exactly. A freeze is about the air reaching 32°F. Frost is ice on surfaces, which can form on calm, clear nights while the air is still a few degrees above freezing. The first 36°F night (frost possible on plants) in Mesa typically comes around Nov 30. Freezes don't come every year here: NOAA puts the yearly chance of a 32°F night at 98.2%, and in years that have one, the first typically arrives around Dec 10.
Download & sources
- Add Mesa frost & planting dates to your calendar (.ics, 2027)
- Printable planting calendar (PDF)
- How these numbers are calculated
Data: NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals 1991–2020 (annual/seasonal and daily normals, station USC00022782); USDA Plant Hardiness Zone ZIP tables 2023 and 2012 by the PRISM Group, Oregon State University; Census 2020 ZIP/place relationship file; USGS elevation. Long-term odds, not a forecast. Figures and sentences are generated from these data by fixed rules; see the methodology. Last updated 2026-10-08.